Poetry, peacock feathers, perfume, carefully selected photographs/clay tablet carvings of fish you caught. Humanity has spent a few thousand years trying to figure out how to be irresistible. The quest for the perfect first impression never ends. But before we can promise the perfect dating profile formula, there's a small question to settle: perfect at what?
Getting looked at? Getting messages? Getting twenty-seven versions of “hey beautiful”? Our definition is considerably less romantic on paper and considerably more romantic in practice: the best profile is the one that gets the right people talking, gets them talking back, and eventually gets them together. Why even bother putting effort into a modern dating “profile” on the swipe apps when decisions are made based on vibes and looks in a split second, half the profiles are fake anyways, and the whole thing is designed to NEVER get you off the app you’re paying 20 bucks a month for. Our system requires more time and effort invested, but that's the point of the whole undertaking. We'd rather have you spend a weekend’s worth of free time answering questions and quizzes instead of wearing a right-swipe shaped divot in your phone screen, admiring your unread messages like a little museum of disappointment.
What happened to 100 first messages?
Two generations walk into a website
Here's where OG Cupid gets weird in the best possible way. We're expecting at least two sorts of visitors. First, thirty- and fortysomethings who remember when a dating website felt like a place: profiles worth reading, fun little quizzes, journals, forums, and people sharing more than their 3 best pics. Second, people who've never really experienced a social platform that wasn't organized around opaque recommendation feeds, advertising pressure, relentless data collection, and outrage repackaged as “engagement.” For the first group, OG Cupid might feel like coming home. For the second, it might feel like discovering the internet once had more to offer than an inescapable hellscape and ads.
An interesting future data point, assuming this website actually launches, is how swipe-era people interact when given the reins to message first without a 2-factor consent to even initiate contact. Will they write thoughtful introductions? Will they freeze in horror at the responsibility? Will they communicate solely in racist memes? We don't know. OkCupid sat in this proto-social network era of profile-driven online communities that never really got replicated, and right now there’s a whole generation of young adults that have never experienced that. Open messaging in 2026 is a social dynamic worth studying all by itself.
More profile to respond to.
Old OkTrends was asking the right question
In 2010, Christian Rudder (Data be upon him) and the original OkTrends team hand-tagged 7,140 profile photographs and compared how different kinds of pictures performed in actual messaging. Smiling wasn't universally better. Looking straight at the camera wasn't universally better. And photographs that inspired an avalanche of attention didn't necessarily inspire the kind of back-and-forth that makes somebody want to meet you. The research came from selected big-city users ages 18–32, so don't take it as a commandment handed down from Mount Tinder. But it does seem oddly prophetic: a detailed examination of the difference between being looked at and being worth talking to, before the swipe era reared its ugly head. [3]
Attention is not a date.
We could call that a victory for boobs and close the laptop. Except Rudder kept digging. He examined whether an incoming message went unanswered or blossomed into an actual conversation, and argued that being conversation worthy mattered independently of looking sexy. This is exactly the distinction we're after. There's no law requiring a good profile to be universally appealing. A photo of your homemade dinosaur costume might impress fewer people than a professionally lit glamour shot, but the person who asks how you built the tail may already be someone worth talking to. That's our inference, not a statistic from the dinosaur costume industry.
Another marvelous relic: in 2009 the original crew analyzed more than half a million opening messages. About 32% got a reply. Messages containing “haha” had a 45% reply rate, “lol” 41%, and “please” 22%. But their findings weren't just an endorsement of laughing maniacally into a stranger's inbox. Messages that referenced specific interests and showed evidence somebody had actually read a profile also performed well. None of this proves adding a word causes a reply; the researchers observed existing conversations, not a randomized vocabulary experiment. You shouldn't open with “haha please.” You should open with unsolicited dog pics. [4][1]
What got a reply?
Of course, a profile can be engineered to attract attention and still leave the person behind it awfully hard to locate. In “The Big Lies People Tell In Online Dating,” OkTrends found that 12% of the most attractive-looking uploaded photos were more than three years old, compared with 5% of average-looking photos. That's not proof anybody was intentionally lying. But it illustrates how a winning picture can drift away from the human who eventually turns up for dinner. [5]
The perfect picture might be yesterday's.
Now count the people who escaped the app
Fast-forward to a 2019 paper studying historical Hinge activity: 421,690,471 potential pairings, 2,148,947 conversations, and 508,989 “effective matches,” defined as an exchange of contact information. The study counted a conversation only when each person sent at least two messages. That's closer to the actual point of online dating than counting swipes, but it's still not a verified first date. The researchers observed relationships between some shared characteristics, goals, and effective matches; they did not prove that making a profile look a particular way causes more people to meet. [6]
The escape hatch was very small.
01 / All potential pairings
02 / Zoom in: conversations only
And then we run headlong into the idea behind OgTrends: Is this data even relevant anymore? The dating app landscape has iterated so many times in a short window, pushing algos and shadowbans and knowingly letting fake or scam profiles proliferate to drive engagement numbers and monthly renewals. Where is the line between noise and numbers? I’m not a scientist, but I did disappoint a few and I think that makes me a little more qualified than some geek off the street.
New Metrics
We want to study measured cognitive ability separately from how intelligent someone's writing sounds, and compare outcomes across different audiences. Just how much do degrees matter? We already know that, to men, they basically don't [7]. What about raw IQ numbers vs degrees and prestige? How good does your writing need to be to overcome a deficit in desirability based on income, physical attractiveness, or a GED? A 2022 study suggests original, specific writing can improve first impressions and stated willingness to date, but it didn't measure actual dates. [8] And a 2017 machine-learning study found that even mountains of preferences and traits struggled to predict the unique spark between two particular speed daters. [9] Chemistry continues to refuse to file the proper paperwork.
A dating site that actually wants you to leave
We may never know the best way to market yourself in a dating profile. Not just because the science is bad, but because the environment changes, the people change, and the entire sales-pitch idea might be part of the problem. A supposedly terrible profile might attract exactly one perfect weirdo on a website where people still get to read. The slow deconstruction of online dating has demonstrated a nasty possibility: a platform can become remarkably efficient at generating activity without becoming particularly good at getting people together. Our priority is, and always will be, getting people together.
So we'll use old research the way it deserves to be used: as a collection of clues, not a recipe for algorithmically approved love. If OG Cupid launches and enough members consent to participate, we'd like to compare truthful versions of profiles under fair exposure conditions, measure reciprocity, and ask members voluntarily whether they actually met. We'll see whether different kinds of people behave differently when given control of discovery and the freedom to message first. We'll never pretend an exchanged phone number is a marriage certificate, or fuck around with the algorithm without telling you [10].
Maybe we reconstruct the conditions that once made interesting profiles matter. Maybe we discover entirely new rules. Maybe we never find perfection at all. We don't know. The datasets are old, stale, conditional, or plain inapplicable to this grand experiment and holy revival, complete with speaking in tongues and snake handling for a few lucky dudes. Hell, we may learn that all we accomplished was creating a place where people can enjoy themselves again. We'd call that a pretty decent start.
We’re making the experiment worth showing up for. Some people will find dates. Some will find friends. Some will make quizzes about finding the ideal werewolf to fuck. We're all gonna have fun either way, god damnit.
Receipts / Sources
- Christian Rudder, “Online Dating Advice: Optimum Message Length,” OkTrends, Sept. 3, 2009. Historic first-contact reply baseline. ↩1↩2↩3
- Bumble Inc., “Bumble Announces Two New Features For Confidence and Clarity in Dating,” Feb. 26, 2026. Company-reported association between profile prompts and responses, without absolute counts. ↩
- Christian Rudder, “The 4 Big Myths of Profile Pictures,” OkTrends, Jan. 20, 2010. Observational photo categorization and messaging outcomes for a restricted sample. ↩1↩2
- OkCupid, “Exactly What To Say In A First Message,” OkTrends, Sept. 14, 2009. Over 500,000 opening messages; observational word associations. ↩1↩2
- Christian Rudder, “The Big Lies People Tell In Online Dating,” OkTrends, July 7, 2010. Photo metadata analysis. ↩1↩2
- Levy, Markell & Cerf, “Polar Similars,” Frontiers in Psychology, 2019. Historical Hinge data; contact-info exchange is an off-platform proxy, not a date. ↩1↩2
- Neyt and colleagues, “Are men intimidated by highly educated women? Undercover on Tinder,” Economics of Education Review, 2019. Field experiment with 3,600 profile evaluations; found no evidence men avoided higher-educated women in that setting. ↩
- van der Zanden and colleagues, “Originality in Online Dating Profile Texts,” PLOS ONE, 2022. Self-presentation and impressions, not confirmed dates. ↩
- Joel, Eastwick & Finkel, “Is Romantic Desire Predictable?” Psychological Science, 2017. Speed-dating prediction study. ↩
- Alex Hern, “OKCupid: we experiment on users. Everyone does,” The Guardian, July 29, 2014. Reporting on undisclosed compatibility experiments. ↩